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27th July 2006.

Yesterdays Results
Astronomic View (Miracle System) came 3rd ,Up Tempo (Best Lay bet of the Day) came 2nd.

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

I bet today's deadly sin will strike a chord with a lot of readers!

I have had 100's, yes I mean 100's of conversations with people who have dropped systems over a couple of day's results, in fact I have even had people leave this email because of 1 or 2 losers, can you believe that?

On another quick note...

Some one emailed me (no names) and accused me of giving the wrong results because they backed the "Mother of all Lays" and they both lost!

Don't get me wrong I am not trying to embarrass anyone but I do ask any readers first to learn the distinction between a lay and a win bet and if you are in any doubt please ask.

My other comment would be why were you betting on my selections after just a couple of days of joining the email?

See, even if I plaster the deadly sins all over the place, people still don't take any notice.

What can I do?


"The Deadly sins of Gambling"

Other Sins.

The Gambling Sin of Short Term Thinking

This is courtesy of Dave, a reader.

I think a medium to long term approach to betting is absolutely vital, particularly (but not only) where win systems are concerned, as you tend to have losing streaks that test your faith.

I also believe short-term thinking underpins a lot of other mistakes - greed, not testing and so on.

You only have to look around Adrian Massey's custom reports, as I know you frequently do, to see what I mean. How many ways are there to find a system returning 120% on a 9-year view? You think, "Great, I'll just follow those, and almost certainly make a profit, based on years of solid evidence over thousands of analysed races.

" You may well be right, but then you see the maximum losing streaks - 29 losses in a row, for example.

How many gamblers would, A) Bail out after 20 consecutive losses, or, B) Set up an appropriate bank, stay the course, understand and trust the statistics, and stay disciplined? I think we all know that sadly maybe 80-90% (mal 98%) take the first option, and this route doesn't make money. The second can be scary and requires great patience, but can make decent overall returns, always assuming good selections are made. We're not trying to get rich overnight here, which is a whole different topic....

I maintain that the key to all this is to think long term and treat your betting bank as an investment, and your system - back or lay - as the investment vehicle. Also, using bookies, Betfair or SP+ as markets to shop around for the best returns on that investment can make a massive difference to your overall profit margins. We should never underestimate this factor. Personally, I find that Betfair has great odds for backing outsiders, but the standard wisdom of a 20% difference falls down at shorter prices. This is an average only, and is heavily skewed in both directions. If my selection methods throw up a shorter-priced favourite, I would tend to use SP+, so that a return one "roll" over SP is guaranteed. (eg. at 2/1 you actually get on at 9/4). Doing this is like getting a few extra winners every month, for almost no extra effort.

Thanks Dave, does anyone else have a Deadly Sin to add?


Ok after some more work on the "Mother of all lay systems" selections we have decided that the maximum price to lay at is 7.00 on the exchanges.

We won on both yesterday.

16.00 Bath, Tomthevic,,
19:20 Folkstone, Mocha Java



New (test) Lay System..."Nags to Riches"
Both won yesterday

W = 56
L = 10
% = 85

Normal system
19:20 Folkstone, Mocha Java

New system
14:45 Sandown, Balian



Miracle System (win Bet)
19.50 Folkstone, King´s Fable


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"Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
18:30 York, Al Qasi (V4 Flat)

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

Advantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners last got an update 22/07/2005
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website...
o Todays sponser tip
The Bismarx

As at 8 o'clock this morning the following horses were identified as within Bismarx range.
Watch for market changes before the race.
Exercise caution at odds over 2.8 or where non-runner's have left less than 5 runner's in a race.
Generally do not lay when wide odds disparity (3.0+) has emerged between the Favourite and the other runner's.
Quit when your profit target has been reached.
Prepare for liability in advance - always plan your next move first.

14.10 Sand PRIME DEFENDER @2.5
14.35 Uttox LADINO @2.4
15.50 Sand ESCAPE CLAUSE @2.4
16.15 Uttox BOREHILL JOKER @2.7
18.25 Lim LILY ELISE @2.5
19.25 Lim TURKS WOOD @2.6
19.30 York MOMTIC @2.0
20.20 Folk PRINCE PICASSO @2.4

The Bismarx

Tel: 0906 663 0456 £1.50 p/min from landlines.
Back and lay bets may be included in message.
Call length will not exceed 4 minutes Updates Mon-Sat at 1:15 pm.

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

Best of Luck


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