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"The Deadly sins of Gambling"
These sins are the ones that prevent you making money and on many
occasions help you lose your bank completely.
My favourite and one I know I probably go on about quite a bit and
is the one I will start with.
"The Gambling Sin of impatience"
Impatience is a major problem among people who gamble, it is probably
intertwined with greed as well, but lets see if we can spot when you
are being impatient.
1. you get a new system and don't read the whole thing all the way
through.
2. You don't paper test (new tips).
3. You stake to much to soon (greed as well)
4. You have a couple of losers then bail out (should have paper tested)
5. You don't stop you go for that "One more Win"
6. You don't write out a plan to follow.
Do you recognise any of these?
There are probably more but these are the main ones.
Here is a classical example of impatience...
You have a start of £200 bank and your being told to just try and make
1% of your bank a day for few years.
How many of you have carried this through for more than a month?
I bet it isn't many, but look at this.
If you take your £200 bank and win 1% everyday for around 240 days
a year after 1 year it will be worth aprox 3000.
After 2 years 46,000
After 3 years 733,000
Ok I know that the stakes will be getting a bit silly in the 3rd year
but the point is that just after a couple of years you could be
making your 50, 100 or 150 a day which I know most of you would like,
but I am afraid impatience gets to you long before this happens.
Why?
Because you know that if you make a little more now then that 2 years
will get here a bit quicker, unfortunately it won't because when you
take the extra risk through impatience, you will end up losing.
This game is all about risk, so you have to avoid giving yourself extra
by taking unnecessary chances, impatience will not help you.
"The Gambling Sin of Greed"
Greed is probably the easiest sin to notice but it is the one that can
really hurt if not kept in check.
If you are suffering from the gambling sin of greed then one or all of
these will be happening to you.
1. Not stopping as soon as you have met your target (going for that
"one more win")
2. Betting on a "Dead Cert"
3. Staking more of your bank than is sensible.
4. Looking for the "holy Grail" or the "pot of Gold" or the system
that will win 100% of the time.
Do you recognise one of these?
With impatience and greed together you have NOT got a chance of winning
if one doesn't get you the other will. But greed can really hurt
because this is the one that stops you thinking through your next move.
Greed just seems to take over all common sense.
How many gambling sites do you know that have this in the title.
"make 100's a day"
Quite a few I suspect, but common sense tells you that this is just
not possible, so why do they use lines like this in the title?
Because they know greed takes over and kicks common sense out of the
window!
To beat greed you have to use patience and common sense, if you
feel greed kicking in then take a deep breath, get up have a walk
around and then ask yourself, "am I making this decision based on
facts or fiction made up from my greed?".
"The Gambling Sin of not Planning
There is a saying...
"Fail to plan, Plan to fail"
You can have good tips but if you don't hava a good plan to follow them
with, then sooner or later you will lose big time.
Planning can stop impatience and greed (remember those) in their tracks
because your know what to do in all instances of betting.
There isn't much to plan for and here are most of them.
1. Plan for when you win.
2. Plan for when you lose.
3. Plan for when you find new tips or are offered a "dead cert"
4. Plan for when you go on the tilt (chasing losses)
5. Plan for a bank wipeout (which shouldn't happen if you have planned)
6. Plan for human nature.
Let me give yo an example.
I get offered selections everyday from all sorts of places, some good some
not so good, so I have a plan to deal with them.
1. If I haven't received tips from this person or place before then they
go in my "watch" folder, even if I am told "it can not lose/win".
2. If I have received tips before but I have still not decided if they
are good enough to use they stay in that folder, but if they have been
doing very well, then they go in to my "take notice" folder.
3. If I am really getting excited about the selections I know I am human
(i think) and sooner or later I will decide to use them. So I have
planned for this and have a "risk Bank". All my tips go through this
bank before I ever use them with my main banks money.
So I always take some of my winnings from my main bank and put it in
my risk bank.
Now this may not be the best way to do things but it works for me and
I try to plan for all possible scenario's.
There are other things to plan for.
Time off from betting (it's weekends for me)
Maximum lay odds I will take (this will depend on tips)
Maximum loss. (this will depend on tips)
I am sure by now you are getting the idea, make plans and stick to them
but be flexible enough to change them when they are not working!
"The Gambling Sin of Jealousy"
Actually I must admit this is not one of mine (not that I remember) but I
had a few readers write in with it, so I guessed it must affect some
people.
Jealousy is when you either think or you know someone is making more than
you, which causes you to make betting decisions to try and catch them.
We have all been in forums where somebody just said they won this or
traded that and made a bundle and immediatly you start to wonder if you
can copy (maybe I do remember), so you go off and try to copy their
results only to go off and try, then lose!
Jealousy can make you break all your plans (sounds a bit like greed) and
cause you to do all sorts of silly things based on "hear say".
When you here someone boasting, ignore the figures because it is human
nature (especially in this game) to over inflate wins and to also
simplyfy them, just give them a pat on the back and go about your
business, using the plans you already have in place.
Even if you know for sure this person is winning what they say they
are, don't rush in, try to find out what they are doing make plans
test and if it is true, then you can enjoy the benefits but in a
controlled manner which may even insure even better success.
"The Gambling Sin of not paper trading"
Yeah I know this comes under "not planning" but I reckon it is a big sin
on it's own as well and it amazes me the amount of people who do not do
it, even for a week!
Now people will argue that past results will tell them all they need to
know in order to work out a plan.
I have to disagree for these reasons.
1. Past results may not be 100% accurate.
2. Past results nearly always show SP only.
Paper trading gives you a good understanding of what to expect from real
life prices, the best times to bet and if they really are performing as
well as expected.
My own observation of how people interpret past results leads me to believe
it is essential for people to make a big effort to paper trade and see
for themselves, how their bank will be affected by the results as they
happen.
Paper trading is the first step in planning so if you do not paper trade
then you can not plan and we know where this leads!
Also if you can not bring yourself to paper trade then you are also
suffering from impatience, so if we look at it that way if you fail to
paper trade then you are going to fail!
The Gambling Sin of Chasing
"Don't chase losers" how many times have you heard that?
In poker there is an expression "Going on tilt", this means that after
you have had one or two bad breaks you start betting on just about any
cards to try and make up some of your losses, but you tend to end up
losing a lot more.
People do it all the time in horseracing as well because they have an
unexpected loss and so then go looking for a quick win to get them back
on track, but instead they often find they have lost even more.
Winning at this game means you can not afford to go on tilt just as you
can not afford not to paper trade, plan or show impatience or greed.
The moment you chase losses you are forgetting everything you have learned
and you have just turned back the clock to when you were a green punter.
Chasing means you haven't taken the emotion out of betting the losses
still hurt and cause you to do all sorts of silly things. If you are
having problems with this one you have a couple of options after a loss.
1. Turn of your computer, don't go near a bookie and do something else.
2. Take a deep breath, review your plan and except it is just part of
what we do.
Do not forget that great saying.
"In horse racing there is always tomorrow"
Because it is true!
The Gambling Sin of emotion
There is no doubt about it whenever there is money involved there is
also an emotional aspect and the sport of kings seems to maginify
it.
Emotions are very handy things to have and can be quite useful but
not here where they can make you do some really silly things!
The problem with emotions is they make you do things without
asking your brain if it is a good idea and the result is that you lose.
Greed is an emotion that causes you to just go that little bit futher
without having all the facts.
Fear is an emotion which creates doubts and stops you from making
decisions based on sound judgement and information.
To be succesfull you have to try to take out as much emotion as you
can or you will end up making very poor decisions, which will cost you
in the long run.
The mindset you need to adopt is that there will be winners and there
will be losers, that is all part of what you are doing just like
sometimes you will make mistakes.
Learn from everything that happens, find out why it happend and plan for
if it happens again.
Don't let emotions rule you except to drive you to become better and
more knowledgable, so that you end up on the winning side rather than
the losing!
The Gambling Sin of Short Term Thinking
This is courtesy of Dave, a reader.
I think a medium to long term approach to betting is absolutely vital,
particularly (but not only) where win systems are concerned, as you
tend to have losing streaks that test your faith.
I also believe short-term thinking underpins a lot of other mistakes
- greed, not testing and so on.
You only have to look around Adrian Massey's custom reports, as I know
you frequently do, to see what I mean. How many ways are there to find
a system returning 120% on a 9-year view? You think, "Great, I'll just
follow those, and almost certainly make a profit, based on years of
solid evidence over thousands of analysed races.
" You may well be right, but then you see the maximum losing streaks -
29 losses in a row, for example.
How many gamblers would, A) Bail out after 20 consecutive losses, or,
B) Set up an appropriate bank, stay the course, understand and trust
the statistics, and stay disciplined? I think we all know that sadly
maybe 80-90% (mal 98%) take the first option, and this route doesn't
make money. The second can be scary and requires great patience, but
can make decent overall returns, always assuming good selections are
made. We're not trying to get rich overnight here, which is a whole
different topic....
I maintain that the key to all this is to think long term and treat
your betting bank as an investment, and your system - back or lay -
as the investment vehicle. Also, using bookies, Betfair or SP+ as
markets to shop around for the best returns on that investment can
make a massive difference to your overall profit margins. We should
never underestimate this factor. Personally, I find that Betfair has
great odds for backing outsiders, but the standard wisdom of a 20%
difference falls down at shorter prices. This is an average only, and
is heavily skewed in both directions. If my selection methods throw
up a shorter-priced favourite, I would tend to use SP+, so that a
return one "roll" over SP is guaranteed. (eg. at 2/1 you actually get
on at 9/4). Doing this is like getting a few extra winners every
month, for almost no extra effort.
Thanks Dave, does anyone else have a Deadly Sin to add?
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