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14th September 2006.
Yesterdays Results
Goodricke (Miracle System) came 4th, Magic Warrior (lay of the day)
came 5th.
Todays ramblings
Good Morning.
If you have been laying for any length of time you can not help to
have noticed the difference between SP prices and the actual price
you can on the betting exchanges on the lay side.
I have had quite a few emails about this so I thought I would spend
the next few day's covering the subject from a lay point of view.
I suppose the best place to start is with Betfairs usual claim that
you can get "20% better than sp" odds on their site.
I presume this is based on the back side and on favourites because
although I may be wrong about this, it must be way higher across all
runners as many of you would have witnessed.
I have a piece of software that I had written for myself which
records the price and price changes on the lay side of selected races
on betfair, giving an average price for the selection. I use these
prices on some sites along side SP to give a more realistic price
guide, so for this demonstration let’s have a look at lay bet a day.
If we look down Septembers selections it is not hard to see there are
some major differences between SP and in some cases over double the
normal SP.
Lay Bet a Day often selects outsider and this is where it tends to
hurt layers even more because the price difference can get extremely
severe.
If we take a look at “Nags to Riches” which mainly picks favourites
(Racing Post) then you can see the difference is not quite as bad,
although there are many occasions where we would have had to pay more.
Please note though, the betfair price I am showing is an average,
so there is a likely hood in many cases that you could have got a
better (or maybe worse) price.
The reason I have pointed this out is because to find out if our
system or tips are going to be profitable, we have to have a pretty
good idea what prices we are going to have to pay for the selections
and certainly for layers this is probably even more important,
especial if we are looking at results where the SP’s shown are over
5/1.
More tomorrow…
-----
Our AvB market was a No Bet because of a NR.
Yarm (AvB) 14th Sep - 15:05 Glorious v Love
My Test Lay is Glorious Prince @ 1.9
To get the selections I am just using pointers like RPR and Topspeed
so this really does need refining but seems to be working at the
moment.
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Racing Post - lose and win selections
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(racingpost - racing- tipsters-naps- Today's best Bet's)
We lost yesterday. I did have an email that was quite interesting from
Mike who said if we only took selections at evens or above we would be
2.5pts in profit. Sanchi is at 1.74 on betfair at the moment so I will
record the price and see if the bookies are offereing a better price.
My Win Selection: (6 winners 8 loser so far)
15:45, Ayr, Sanchi
---------------------
Guest selection - Luv2Lose
---------------------
This is a one a day lay short priced lay system we are trying.
Here is today’s Luv2Lose (lay) selection:
http://www.luv2lose.co.uk/data3.asp
Stolen Light came 3rd yesterday.
Ermine Sea is going too far in this race with the likes of Som Tala
and Corrib Eclipse in the field.. (Authors comments). (Authors comments)
Pontefract, 16:30, Ermine Sea
-------
"The Deadly sins of Gambling"
Other Sins.
----
New (test) Lay System..."Nags to Riches"
We only had one selection yesterday and we won.
W = 79
L = 12
% = 87
Today's
Normal (this is the normal nag's to Riches lay system rules selection).
16:00 Yarmouth, Pevensey
New (this is a new version of nag's to Riches lay system rules
16:20 Ayr,Ballyhurry
New (this is a new version of nag's to Riches lay system rules
selection that we have been trying).
17:00 Pontefract, Indication
----
Malcolm
Miracle System (win Bet)
15:45, Ayr, Sanchi (Win bet)
Results:
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/miracle-system-06.htm
Purchase:
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/miracle-system-06-payment.htm
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"Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
14:55 Pontefract Convivial Spirit (Maiden System)
Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I
will choose one of the selections for this tip.
You can purchase the system formula:
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Advantages of owning the system:
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4) UK or IRE races
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6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
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You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website...
o Todays sponser tip
Sorry no sponsor today
Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my
URL
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
Best of Luck
Malcolm |
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