How do I start making REAL money from betting on the horses?
| How to profit from
horse racing systems How do I start making REAL money from betting on the horses? |
 |
 |
 |
| Home | Directory | Odds Checker | Each-way Checker |
|
|
1st Last time out Win or Lose? This was a little test I done to see if horses that were 1st Last time out, were better win bets or lays. It started on the 27th of January 2005. 1st Lto Win or Lose?If you have a look at the basic stats then only a 3rd of horses go on to win the next time they run and only a small percentage win 3 in a row(overall flat are less and jumps are higher) But most win systems you see say “look out for them” and most lay systems you see say “beware of them” (mine included) so why is this? Well I suspect it’s all down do percentages and although there is less chance of a horse winning again, it is higher than a horse that has not won before. When in fact it isn’t! A horse that placed 2nd LTO actually only has a slightly less chance of winning and horses that were on their debut, were just as likely to win. For system builders (win or lay) this can obviously cause a dilemma so we have to do more research, to find out if there are places where they do better or worse. Unfortunately favourites that won LTO tend not to be god value for money, and are often odds on, which for a win system means there is very little profit and for a lay system, we know odds on is a risk! Lets play around with this idea for the next few days and see if we can come up with our own conclusions. Today we have 5 races with favourites that were LTO winners and only 1 is forecast odds on, so it will be interesting to see SP and results. 13.30 Warwick, 9/4 Rosetown, 14.00 Warwick, 5/2 Toulouse-Lautrec, 15.00 Warwick, 11/10 Figaro Du Rocher, 15.50 Plumpton, 8/13 Surefast, 16.20 Plumpton, 11/4 Fairly Smart, I will take some other information down about each race, but I would love to hear from anyone who has done their own research on the subject. ----------------------- Should we be concerned about 1st Lto? Here are the results from yesterday. 13.30 Warwick, 9/4 Rosetown, 3rd 10/3 14.00 Warwick, 5/2 Toulouse-Lautrec, 5th 5/2 15.00 Warwick, 11/10 Figaro Du Rocher, 1st 13/8 15.50 Plumpton, 8/13 Surefast, 1st 4/5 16.20 Plumpton, 11/4 Fairly Smart, 2nd 10/3 A mixed bag but interesting to note that the 2 lowest priced SP's both won. If you had layed 1pt on each selection at those odds you would be 0.57 in profit, but if you had placed win bets you would be -0.57. We already know that you can not make money backing favourites but these are favourites that won LTO so a simple staking plan, would have probably got you back in profit. Let's have a look at todays. 14.10 Doncaster, Benefit 9/4 15.10 Folkestone, Just Anvil 15/8 14.20 Wolverhampton, Air Mail 100/30 14.55 Wolverhampton, Llamadas 11/4 Only 4 and none of them odds-on, so we could easily be looking at 4 losers but we will see! ----------------------- Should we be concerned about 1st Lto? Here are the results from Friday. 14.10 Doncaster, Benefit 9/4 (2) 4/1 15.10 Folkestone, Just Anvil 15/8 (1)11/4 14.20 Wolverhampton, Air Mail 100/30 (9) 9/2 14.55 Wolverhampton, Llamadas 11/4 (2)5/1 Score now Lay +.0.82 Bet -0.82 11/4 is the highest winner we have had so far and I a mentioned Friday a staking plan would probably work well here. If you took away any bet under 2/1 and layed them you would have only had 1 loss so far, and if you reversed that and only bet on horses under 2/1 then you would have had 2 bets and won both times. Still we certainly need more data, so lets see what happens today. 15.15 Exeter, Kauto Star, 1/5 14.15 Kempton, Crossbow Creek, 3/1 14.50 Kempton, Schuh Shine, 11/8 15.25 Kempton, Rambling Minster, 3/1 15.00 Wolves, Kingston Harbour,9/2 16.40 Wolves, Merdiff, 5/1 2 have forecast odds of bellow 2/1 and 4 above. ----------------------- Should we be concerned about 1st Lto? Here are the results from Yesterday. 15.15 Exeter, Kauto Star, 1/5 (2) 14.15 Kempton, Crossbow Creek, 3/1 (1) 5/2 14.50 Kempton, Schuh Shine, 11/8 (1) 15/8 15.25 Kempton, Rambling Minster, 3/1 (7) 4/1 15.00 Wolves, Kingston Harbour,9/2 (3) 5/1 16.40 Wolves, Merdiff, 5/1 (4) 9/2 Score now Lay +.0.45 Bet +0.55 1st put win bets in to profit and left the lay score slightly down. We still havent had a bigger winner than 11/4 but that doesn't mean it will not happen, if it does it could make a big difference to both sides. I am actually starting to feel that this may be a better win system than lay, but either way you will probably need some sort of staking plan to help get over the ones that do not win. Still saying that we have not introduced any filters, although we need a few more days results before we even consider, looking at any. Let's see what happens today. 13.40 Taunton, Manorson, 4/5 14.30 Lingfield, Cordial, 9/4 15.10 Taunton, Blue Business, 7/4 15.30 Lingfield, High Chart, 3/1 Only 1 above the 11/4 so it will be interesting to see the results. ----------------------- Should we be concerned about 1st Lto? Here are the results from Yesterday. 13.40 Taunton, Manorson, 4/5 (1) 4/6 14.30 Lingfield, Cordial, 9/4 (5) 5/2 15.10 Taunton, Blue Business, 7/4 (1) 7/4 15.30 Lingfield, High Chart, 3/1 (9) 3/1 Score now Lay +.0.04 Bet +0.96 The good thing about these tips so far is that you don't seem to go far without a loser or a winner. I went over to Adrian Masseys site yesterday to see what his database would throw up. Jumps show a 44% win rate if you select 1st LTO out and odds up to 11/4, although the flat figure is less at 38% You would expect it to fall on the side of lays, but it's pretty close to 50/50 for jumps. An idea could be to use it for win bets (with a staking plan) in the jump season and then turn it into lay bets for the flat season! Although I expect with a few filters we can use it for both at any time. Let's see what happens today. 13.50 Newcastle, Polar Gunner, 11/10 14.20 Newcastle, Silver Jack, 11/8 15.10 Lingfield, Houdini Bay, 9/4 15.20 Newcastle, Sara Monica, 11/4 16.00 Leicester, It´s Music, 10/11 ----------------------- ----------------------- Should we be concerned about 1st Lto? Here are the results from Yesterday. 13.50 Newcastle, Polar Gunner, 11/10 (4) 1/1 14.20 Newcastle, Silver Jack, 11/8 (2) 2/1 15.10 Lingfield, Houdini Bay, 9/4 (8)4/1 15.20 Newcastle, Sara Monica, 11/4 (2) 9/4 16.00 Leicester, It´s Music, 10/11 (4) 9/4 Score now Lay + 5.04 Bet - 4.04 Just what I was waiting for, a whole days loser's, that sure changes the whole thing around! The lay side is now 9 points in front and looking quite good with a profit of 5pts. The thing to consider is, what you think the chances of them all winning are? As many of you know, I run a stop at a winner service that selects 6 races a day to bet on, in the 2 years we have been running the most wins we have had in one day are 5 and that has only happened once. Our average stands around the 2 mark, I know the selection process we are using is different (in fact far more refined), the principle of selecting a range of horses is the same. We have have had far more days when all six selections lost. My own feelings are that we are unlikely to get all the selections winning, but it may still be a posibilty. So where do we stand now? Well my feelings are that we are now looking at a pretty decent lay system, especially as the average odds are pretty low as well. What could change my mind is a few good high priced winners which could turn the whole thing around again, bare in mind though that we have not had a win in 6 races and we have not covered filters. Here are todays picks. 13.20 Kelso, Faasel, 4/7 14.10 Towcester, Headliner, 3/1 15.10 Towcester, Jericho Iii, 4/6 15.20 Kelso, Harrovian, 2/1 15.30 Southwell, Romil Star, 7/4 16.00 Southwell, Hidden Dragon, Evs 16.10 Towcester, Inch Pride, 4/5 Some very low forecast today, so we should see some winner's!
© Copyright 2002 - 2010 Bluebell Data, & horse racing systems uk LLC - all rights reserved Please note: Gambling is risky, we can not be held responsible for how you act upon the information provided at this site. |
|
||||||||