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Hi Horse Racing Fan
It actually amazes me the expectations that people have with the
winnings they think they want to achieve, compared to the size of their
banks.
I often get emails from people asking me if I think they can make a
living from a bank of a £1000, admitably it does seem a lot, but I
doubt very much it is going to be enough to retire on!
Lets have a look at some figures so you can see what I am talking about.
I would summarise that most people (most) could probably live on around
a £100 a day, there will be some that need less and others that need
more, but it gives us something to work with and £36,500 a year (before)
tax is actually around an average income.
If you were to go to any financial expert and say to him that you
wanted to invest enough, to get an income of a £100 a day, here is what
he will probably tell you.
"To be really safe then put about £2,000,000 (2 million) in a building
society which after tax will give you close to that.
If you are prepared to be more ambitious then how about an Index Tracker?
This tracks the top 100 or 250 shares and on average over a 5 year
period earns you around 10%, £400,000 should do it, but remember it's
only an average and some years my be better than others and what you
invest may be less than you get back!"
hmm...
Ok I know there are probably riskier investments that earn more but the
higher the return the higher the risk!
With that in mind lets look at your bank and horse racing.
I think most people lose at horse racing because they over stretch
their banks, especially during a losing run, it's very difficult to
stop and have a look at the situation.
From a lay point of view where we get far more winners than losers (but
we pay for that in liability), if you want to be ultra careful and
keep the pressure off then your stake should be 1% of half of your bank
and the maximum at any time should not go above 2% of your total bank.
2% will probably only see you past 2 losers in a row if you are using a
lay ladder, where as 1% of 1/2 of your bank will give you a lot more
opportunity to recover any loses.
From a win point of view you first need to have a very good idea of how
long any losing streak is likely to last, and then again stake a
percentage of your bank accordingly, but I would keep to a maximum of
5% although many would argue 10%.
With these figures in mind it is not hard to figure out the size of the
bank you will need to make a £100 a day.
If you follow my advice to the letter on the lay side you would need
£20,000 ready as a bank, less if you decide to take a larger risk.
You obviously do not need this sitting in Betfair when your only
staking £100 a race, but you will need to be able to call on some
if you start losing, otherwise it can be earning money in a building
society.
If you can get enough wins then you will need less on the win side of
things, but I wouldn't be surprised if at the end of the day they are
not far apart.
Now I know these figures are still big and look an impossibility for
some people, but don't despair over the next few days I will give you
some strategies to help you reach them long term.
Also don't forget all our winnings are tax free (at the moment), where
as some profits from investments are taxable!
If it wasn’t for losers we would all be very rich, but it is losing
that makes betting on horse racing what it is, but it always seems to
be the one thing that trips many people up, they don’t expect to lose!
So the first thing you need to get very straight and come to terms with
is that you are going to lose, how often is another matter, but you
are GOING TO LOSE!
Now we know that, we can start thinking about the possibility and how
it will affect the way we bet and what it will do to our bank.
If you win bet only then in some ways the whole thing is a lot simpler,
you just have to expect to put up with far more losers than winners
(unless you have an amazing system or are very good at picking winners),
but you know that your stake is what you lose, so you really only need
to come up with a strategy that will allow you to get over the losers
without depleting your bank, and that will give you a good chance of
recouping your bank when you win.
My suggestion is to look at worst case scenarios and add a couple then
you should at least be prepared for the worst and pleasantly surprised
for the best.
The amount of times you win or lose will probably be dependant on the
odds that you bet at, because the short odds favourites do win far more
often than long odd ones, but the pay check is bigger on the higher odds!
Laying is a little more complex, but luckily we tend to have a lot more
winners but our Achilles heel is liability, which if not kept in check,
can easily wipe out a bank after 2 or 3 losers.
I have several strategies for layers but all of them have to be tied in
with the size of your bank, which is something we need to discuss in a
bit more detail.
Just about all betting exchanges have a minimum stake of £2.00 which
is pretty small but if you want to use my idea of just 1% of your bank
or even 0.5% then you will need £200 or £400 to start with, until then
you are going to have to be very careful with how you use your bank,
because it will be very easy to get a wipe out.
Patience is the key for smaller banks and you will have to accept that
it is going to be a little bit of a roller coaster ride before you get
enough money to start growing it at a faster rate and until that time
you must stick to the minimum £2.00 bet no matter what.
Have a look at this….
http://www.laybetting.com/data-v4-all.asp
Ok I am bragging a bit here as these are the results for V4 of my lay
betting system and I am hoping when you look (it is an up to date
active system) that even though you could have started with as little
as £50 your bank should have increased quite a bit and notice that we
are still only staking £2.00 per lay, but using the lay ladder to help
us out when we lose.
One word of warning I would not use the lay ladder past 2 losers, if
you had a 3rd then revert back to the standard staking plan.
If the lay ladder worries you then these are the same results using
level staking only, admittedly a lot slower but still making far much
more money than you would anywhere else and the bigger your bank gets
the safer your money should be.
http://www.laybetting.com/data-v4-all-nostake.asp
Actually the profits from the results I have just shown you could be
even better if you simply doubled your stake when your bank doubled,
but it shows how even with a small amount of money you can make
substantial gains that are far better than any other investment I
could think of.
There are probably lots of different strategies you could use for
improving increasing the size of your bank and as long as what you
use won’t wipe you out after a few losers then it should be fine.
Whatever the size of your bank the real trick is to protect as much as
you can, this means that you have to plan your bets based on knowledge
and get away from the Saturday afternoon punter” syndrome of betting
what takes you fancy or following the tipsters like sheep.
You only have to take one look at the racingpost naps table to see
that the majority of “Professional” tipster are normally in minus
figures and even the top ones have losing runs of 7 or more tips in
between winners, and if you consider these are their best naps of the
day, then you should get a feeling for what to expect, if you follow
these guys blindly.
While writing this (30/08/2005) the top tipster is RacingPost RP
ratings who has a level £1 per tip profit of 43.82 (nearest rival
29.15) which on the face of it is very good, if you had put £10 on
every tip you would now be £438.20 in profit, but to get that you
would have had to endure a losing run of 12 and an average losing
run of 3 (115 losers and 38 winners), and people wonder why I only
lay now days!
Actually the above information makes a good point, if I were to come
to you and say "I have this great system, normally wins every 3 or 4
bets but you may have to go 12 without a win, but hey your still going
to make money at the end of the day", I wonder if you would think
“Malcolm’s an ok sort of guy, but if he thinks I am going to take a
chance on 12 losers then I actually think he is a bit bonkers”, but
there it is in black and white, and shows with the correct strategy
and patience you could have turned £1 into £43.82 or £10 into £438.20
of £100 into £4382.00 in a few short months.
And if you got to the bottom of the table you will see (at the time
of writing this) that Underhand from The Newcastle Journal has
accumulated a debt of -80.25, with their longest losing run being 36!
The point being that if you are jumping from one tipster to another or
for that fact one system to another, you have a very good chance of
landing on losing tips only, where as if you choose your
system/tipsters wisely and stick with them, then in the long run you
are likely to come out on top and protect your bank.
As your betting bank is your investment vehicle you may want to consider
adding to it from time to time, because like any other investment the
more you have in it the more you can earn.
I know that most of us are proud when we start with a small bank and
then turn it into something much larger from our winnings, but some help
on the way could have made it easier!
That’s why I always suggest that once you have settled down and chosen
your betting method and you are winning on a regular basis, then you
could consider adding more to your bank as and when you can afford it,
even £10 a month can help.
One other question I often get asked is…
“Should I split my bank up for different tips?”
Again this will depend on the size of your bank and so extent your
organisations skills.
The first thing to do is run some scenarios to see what will happen if
the different tips all lose together, it’s surprising how few people do
not do this!
Secondly even if you don’t split your bank I would do it on paper.
An example would be if you had a bank of £1000 and you wanted to run 2
different tips, then I would split the bank in two giving you a bank of
£500 for each tip.
Your stake will be a % of the £500 not the £1000 and make a note when you
lose or win how it has affected each side.
This method does worry me though because it is very easy to make mistakes
and dip into the other tips money when one of them is not doing very well,
it is far better to have a total split and use a separate bank for each tip.
If you haven’t got a large bank and you are trying to run more than one tip,
then be careful because I can tell you from experience that every so often
the all have a tendency to lose in harmony!
Well that about wraps it up for the bank article, I will get it up on line
in the next day or two so you can read it again in it’s complete form.
Next time I want to discuss recovery staking plans.
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