30th July 2008

This week we have been talking about finding away to find a value bet and to come up with our own way of creating a rating system.

Let us now look at the types of form we can use that will help us in our quest to find a value bet.

The simple things to look for are:

Won at the same distance (Denoted by D along the side the name of the horse at RP)
Won at the course (Denoted by C along the side the name of the horse at RP)
Won at the same class.
Dropping a Class
Going up a class
Dropping a Class
Going up a Class
LTO (Last time out, only really relevant if at same distance and class although you should look at the distance it won against it's nearest rival).
Going
Weight (compared to LTO and it's rivals in this race).
How many days since last run (Number along the side the name of the horse at RP)

The above list is what I call the factual element of form and these are the ones I tend to use although there are probably more.

You could of course also use the what I refer to as the "human" element and include things like the Trainer form and how well they normally do at the course, the same with the jockey.

The problem with the "human" element is that you just don't know how useful it really is for this event but it certainly should be considered.

One thing to remember here and that is we are looking for "value" so we probably won't be looking at the 1st or 2nd favourite, we will be looking for an outsider that we feel has a better chance than everyone else thinks.

You may find that you are finding the value in a place bet rather than outright win.

The thing with form is that you can go as deep as you want. Let's take "Going up or down in class" as example.

If a horse is moving up in class then it normally means that it won or did very well in a previous race, so the trainer is moving it up a class to see if the horse is still competitive. This is not always the case, sometimes a trainer is just seeing if the horse can hold it's own at a higher class and build the horses confidence, so they can then drop it one or two to give it a better chance next time out.

Learning some of the trainer tricks is well worth the effort!
If you do some research on how well horses who drop one or two classes do, you may be surprised. And this is one of the learning curves, to find out how each piece of information can effect a horses chance and then decide how important it is.

More tomorrow.

Lay/Back System Test ("Started 23/07/2008")

There are two types of selections here. The first is a lay tip as long as the price is under 2.00 and the second is a back tip as long as the price is 2.00 or above.

There is one thing to think about here. If a lay selection goes to 2.00 or above you could decide to back it instead and the same goes for a back selection dropping below 2.00 you could then lay this. It's probably best to back/lay these near to the "off". We are not using a staking plan at the moment, just level stakes to see what happens.

If you want you can download the selections (Mon to Fri) directly into GHB using the session/server tips option. The URL is here.
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/session4.xml

The session file is set as lay, odds between 1.03 and 1.99 and 2.00 stake, but you should use your own option settings.

I will also upload a spreadsheet once a week with the latest results here.
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/lay-back-results.xls

Lay (Only if under 2.00)
Yesterday's.
19.10 Perth, Rory Boy EP 1.71 1st 10/11

Today's
3:30, Goodwood, Henrythenavigator EP 1.43

Back (Only if over 2.00)
Yesterday's.
20.20 Worcester, Barneys Mate EP 2.2 1st 10/11 (I watched the price for most of the day and it didn't drop below 2.02 but I am not sure nearer the off.)

Today's
3:45, Perth, Premier Dane, EP 2.26

Guest Selection ("An Idea I want to try")

Sponsors of the day ("Products and Tips for you to look at.")

Sorry bills had some internet problems so he couldn't get his selections to me on time.

http://www.bills321lays.co.uk/

Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay a day from my Lay betting System")

Yesterday.
17.30 Bev, Gulf Coast 5th 9/4f

Today: 19.15 Leic, Stargazer Jim

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:
http://www.makeyourhorseracingpay.co.uk

Please Note: I do not keep records of this tip, I just want to show readers how good it can be but part of learning should be to watch what a selection does daily.

You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website.
Click here to find out more.

Back test system ( "A 'back' system that I came up with a while ago")

This system is available as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/go_pbs.htm

As a new idea I am going to start a more aggressive staking plan trial and stick more closely to the CashMaster idea.

Please Note: This is a trial. Please do not attempt to run a staking plan unless you understand exactly what you are getting yourself into.

New Trial Started 21/07/2008.
Start Bank £500.00
Bank Now: £282.20
We will use 5% of our current bank as our base stake (divided by the odds we get) and we will use the CashMaster system to get back loses except when the selections price at betfair is under 2.00. All winnings will be calculated -5% betfair charge. If a runner is under 2.00 and we are recovering loses then we prospone the staking plan and stake the whole 5% stake.

Yesterday. (Loss amount so far 217.8)
14:50, Gdwd, Conduit EP 1.7 (Because the selection is under 2.00 we are only using our normal £25 stake) 1st 1/2

Today. 16:05, Gdwd, Colony EP 5.4 (Stake 49.50)


Remember this is just a test and we are paper testing "backing" these selections.

 "The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these out)
If you need help about anything please go to my support site.
If you haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair points.

You can automate your betting with GHB.
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/

Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my URL

http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com

Have a good days racing.

Malcolm

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