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23rd May 2007
Todays ramblings
Good Morning.
I just realised we have another Bank Holiday this
weekend. I think I will be working some of it, I have had to much time off
lately.
I haven't shown you any tests on the Grey Horse bot lately. The
reason for this is that we have just added some of the football markets to it
(as I have already mentioned) and a couple of other features.
One of
the new features is cancelling a race if there is a reduction in the number of
runners.
The only way you can do this reliably using betfair is to
monitor what is called the "reduction factor" (RD).
The way this works
is that Betfair add a RD based on the horses chance of winning the race and how
this would effect the other runners in the race.
You can get a general
idea of the RD using the following formula.
1/price X 100
So a horse
with a price of 4 would be:
1/4 = 0.25 X 100 25%
This is only a very
rough guide. If you click on a horses name on betfair, the screen that opens
will show you the exact RD.
A favourite trading at odds under 2.0 could
have a RD of around 60% where an outsiders could be less than 1%.
So
the way we have approached this is to allow the user to put in a % value that
if exceeded will cancel any bets that haven't been placed on that race. This
means if you don't want to bet on any race where there is a NR then you would
probably set the "Reduction Factor" to 1 or 2%, but if you only want to cancel
if a significant runner leaves the race then you would probably set it at
25%.
Non Runners are one of those things that can effect different bets
in different ways. If you lay and a significant runner is withdrawn then that
put's your risk up and although your monetary risk is adjusted by betfair this
is not much good to you if the horse you were expecting to win has been
withdrawn. For layers this is the same for Place bets. If you are betting on an
8 runner race and one is withdrawn, although there is a RD, the place payout is
not adjusted.
On the other side of the coin that could suit backers just
fine!
2. Guest Selection - 19-04-2007
I have been
receiving some win tips from a good friend of mine called Shaun.
There
are two selections Best and Next best. You can look at best only or follow
both. Shaun suggest that you aim to make 5% of your bank a day and he chases
any losses onto the next selection.
I am going to start with a
£500 bank.
What you do then is take 5% of your bank, in this case
£25.00 and then divide it by the available odds and that's your
stake.
So if the odds were 2/1 then I would divide £25 by 2 making a
£12.50 stake.
If I then lost I would take the £25 already lost
and add it to my next stake that is again 5% of my bank and then divide this
new figure by the available odds.
Let's see what happens.
Yesterday:
Yesterdays Bank = £696.06
2:10 LINGFIELD GAELIC
ROULLETTE.(Best Bet) 1st 6/4
Won =34.80 I am stoping if I win on the
first bet
6:45 TOWCESTER ARCTIC SPIRIT (Next Best) 3rd 7/2
Todays
Bank = £740.86
Here are todays.(Don't forget win bets)
7:20 SEDGEFIELD HIGHGLEN (Best Bet)
8:10 HUNTINGDON CAPE STORMER
(Next Best)
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started
20-11-2006
This is a
Betting
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 18.36
Yesterday:
16.40 Lingfield, Mubaashir, EP 2.0 5th
19.45
Towcester, Golden Feather EP 2.0 3rd
Today's:
15.50 Ayr,
Ptarmigan Ridge EP 2.26
15.30 Kelso, Buckstruther, EP 2.1
16.10
Lingfield, Jeepstar EP 4.00
18.40 Huntingdon, Ground Breaker, EP 2.46
19.40 Huntingdon, Classic Gold, EP 4.4
19.50 Sedgefield, Mr Twins, EP
2.76
20.20 Sedgefield, High Frequency EP 4.1
4. Miracle System
(win Bet)
Yesterday: (9th may)
Normal: 16:40, Lingfield,
Escape Route 3rd 8/15
Pts 2007: - 5.44
Top Choice: 16:30,
Southwell, Giant Slalom 25pts 2nd 8/13
Pts 2007: -4.84
Bank =
555.50
Today:
Normal: 16:40, Lingfield, Philatelist
Top
Choice: 15:00, Kelso, Yes Sir 50pts
(we are trying an experiment
with the Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the
staking plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank
on the 03/05/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/miracle-system-06-payment.htm
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
'Use The Principles of 'My Mathematical Formula' on The Betting Exchanges and
start profiting - NOW' ...... or use it as normal at your usual venue and win
anyway! ..... either way with 'My Mathematical Formula' you can't lose
Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" -
Lay Betting
System Bet
Yesterday:9th
17.20 Bev, Gigs magic 4th
3/1
Today: 14.30 Kelso Alfonso
Please Note: The lay
betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the
selections for this tip.
You can purchase the system formula:
http://www.makeyourhorseracingpay.co.uk
 Advantages of owning the
system:
1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later
in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can
talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular
updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8)
Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now
includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own
your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting
System"
http://www.laybettingsystem.co.uk/affiliate.htm
**NEW**
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
TheAlmostCertainLayNap
4.40 Ling, Khyberie
Staking:
Set a maximum amount as your liability, then divide that figure by
the available odds.
EG. £100 / (8.8 - 1) = 12.82 so your stake is
£12.82.
TheAlmostCertainLayNap
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay
System started 07/11/2006.
After playing around with selections I
have decided that for the time being this is going to be a lay only test. I
think I have worked out a system that will give us quite good prices but I
suspect there will have to be a maximum lay price set. I am just not sure what
that will be but I am testing between 2.00 and 7.00. I will make every effort
to record betfair lay prices as well. The ones marked with an asterisks
(*) are from the original and tighter system, I am not using these
now.
Udate. I am now stopping at the first winner and changing my
stop loss to £16.00 although I think this may be to high and we should
also stop at the first loser and call it a day. Only time will tell.
Yesterday:
Sunderland BAGS, 11.19, Mckays Quest, 2 Replaced 4th 7/2
Sunderland BAGS, 11.48, Son Of Juve, 3 2nd 3/1
Perry Barr BAGS, 12.12,
Highfire Lass, 6 3rd 9/4
Perry Barr BAGS, 12.42, Rooster Beyonce, 1(*)
6th 6/1
Perry Barr BAGS, 13.27, Dalcash Max, 1 1st 6/4
Perry Barr
BAGS, 14.03, Pineapple Charly, 3 6th 11/8
Nottingham BAGS, 14.57, Rich
Blend, 2 4th 3/1
Nottingham BAGS, 15.17, Salems Scooby Do, 2(*) 4th
11/4
Crayford BAGS, 15.28, Raw Lucky, 5 2nd 4/1
Crayford BAGS, 16.08,
Ballybrack Lemon, 5 2nd 7/2
Crayford BAGS, 16.27, Lacken Spirit, 5(*) 6th
7/2
Nottingham BAGS, 16.37, Beechwood Magpie, 5 1st 9/4
Nottingham
BAGS, 16.57, Rooster Flyer, 3 2nd 6/1
Crayford BAGS, 17.07, Triggers
Pint, 2 2nd 7/2
Nottingham BAGS, 17.48, Podges Pick, 4 2nd 3/1
Sheffield BAGS, 18.56, Comet, 1 6th 9/2
Sheffield BAGS, 19.42, Scholes
Ozzy, 3(*) 1st 4/1
Sheffield BAGS, 20.13, Clachan A Choin, 5(*) 1st
1/1
Newcastle BAGS, 21.22, Corrakelly Rose, 3(*) 1st 6/1
Price Screen Shot
Here are today's.
12.04, Hall
Green BAGS, Jenson Schwarz, 4, (*)
12.12, Newcastle BAGS, Copeland Duels,
2, (*)
12.42, Newcastle BAGS, Gojonnygogogogo, 6,
13.33, Hall
Green BAGS, Winetavern Boxer, 4,
13.44, Newcastle BAGS, Stay Cool,
4,
13.51, Hall Green BAGS, Supreme Madonna, 5,
14.08, Hove
BAGS, Miss Takle, 6,
14.18, Oxford BAGS, Avid Storm,
3,
14.57, Oxford BAGS, Bregogue Eire, 3,
15.07, Hove BAGS,
Lettingzone Zoe, 3,
15.38, Oxford BAGS, Peanut Smuggler,
1, (*)
17.27, Hove BAGS, Black Precious, 2,
17.33, Oxford
BAGS, Gee Up Doggy, 2,
17.48, Oxford BAGS, Reenview Shaun,
5,
17.58, Hove BAGS, Tragumna Rebel, 1,
18.04, Oxford BAGS,
Ballysimon Rose, 5,
18.38, Sunderland BAGS, Quarterland Lass,
6,
19.11, Sunderland BAGS, Tornaroy Talon, 2, (*)
19.58,
Sunderland BAGS, Hillcross Legend, 6,
20.13, Sunderland BAGS, Elwick
Who, 2,
20.22, Swindon BAGS, Bauravilla Shep, 6,
21.07,
Swindon BAGS, Bunnow Swallow, 1,
21.22, Swindon BAGS, Radiant Lady,
4,
Download the
session.xml here (normally available by 10am mon-Fri)
Normal daily
settings.
Stake 2.00
Stop Win: 2.00
Stop Loss: 16.00
I set
the
Grey Horse bot price range from 1 -7.
9. Millionaire's Row - Win
Selections started 13/11/2006
This is a win system (test) that me
and a friend have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him
select every morning so although we created the system together he is the one
really refining it.
Click Here to see the results so far.
You can now get
these selections Saturday by signing up here:
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/millionaire-signup.htm
Yesterday's Results can now been seen at:
http://www.millionairesystems.co.uk
--------------------------------------------------
Millionaire
Double Selection.
7.20 Sedg: Cannon Fire/Highglen
Millionaire
Daily Nap
3.00 Kelso: Yes Sir
Millionaire Double Take: 40pts
Win /60pts Lay 2nd Favourite
No Qualifier Today
Back:
Lay:
The idea is to to back the favourite and lay the second best
priced horse before the off.
We are hoping that most of the time the lay
should not change but if it does then it is always the best priced horse (lay
side) after the favourite.
Our stake will be £10 split 4.00 on the
back and 6.00 on the lay. Of course you could do this how you want but we
suggest you put slightly more on the lay to cover any loses on the back bet
because we feel the lay will lose far less often.
Backing & Laying
(new 21/05/2001)
8.50 Sedg: Dead Mans Dante/Monashee Grey(Shanehill)
Staking same as above.
Yesterday
3.40 Muss: Baylaw Star 2nd 6/1
/Snow Bunting 5th 7/1 (Esoterica)
Full details are given at
http://www.millionairesystems.co.uk
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
Have a good days
racing.
Malcolm
Malcolm@horseracingsystemsuk.com
http://www.laybetting.com
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
P.S. How about something different...
http://www.greyhoundlaysystem.co.uk/
We make every
effort to supply high quality tips, but we cannot be responsible for any losses
incurred by any persons using these tips or any of the information
provided.
This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or
start at anytime, the sponsor of the tip can change at anytime.
You
can use it on your website but all links must be kept in place.
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