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20th September 2005.
Yesterdays Results
Cabourg (Miracle System) came 4th, Elegant Times(Best Lay bet
of the Day) came in 8th!
.
Todays ramblings
Good Morning.
We have already discussed the downfalls of staking plans but now let’s
look at how they can be helpful.
The two main reasons for using a staking plan are
a. To grow your bank when you are winning.
b. To recover loses
Let’s start with recovery because this is always the one that worries
most people and if not kept in check, the most expensive.
The first thing you need to do is answer some questions about your
selections.
1. How big is my bank?
2. What is my longest losing streak likely to be?
3. What is my longest winning streak likely to be?
4. What are the Average Odds are I am betting at?
Let’s have a look at it from the Win betting side first.
In the earlier example with the RacingPost RP we know we could have to
stand a losing run of 12, but if we look at the win and lost columns
we can see (as at 20/09/2005) there were 131 losers and 42 winners
(we will forget the NR’s), which gives us a total of 173 selections.
Divide 173 by 42 and we get an average win rate of 1 in every 4
(4.12 to be precise) races.
Unfortunately we do not know from the table what the average odds are
but we can get an indication from the seasonal level stakes figure of
+37.23.
We know we have lost 131 pts so the 42 winners would have had to not
only won back these losses, but also added 37.23 to the pot. If we add
131 and 37.23 together and then divide by 42 we get…
131 + 37.23 = 168.23 / 42 = 4.00 or 4/1.
So we now know that if we follow the RacingPost RP ratings…
We should win on average once every 4 races at 4/1 (it’s a bit higher
than this which is why we show a profit!)
We could see a losing streak of 12 but we could also see a winning
streak of 4.
Now let’s give ourselves a fantasy bank of £500.
We have to decide straight away what staking plan we are going to use
(if any) because this will determine, how much of our bank we are
going to stake on each selection.
If we were not going to use a staking plan at all then we could
simply bet 5% of our bank or £25.00 on each selection.
A quick check on the losing run side shows 25 X 12 = £300 which shows
we can cover the longest losing run (so far) easily.
(Please note though to get the same results as the table you will have
to bet to level stakes at all times and get the same or better odds
on each selection.)
A variation of this though is to actually stake 5% of your current bank
at all times, this means that when you win you increase your stakes,
and when you lose you are decreasing your stakes.
This will protect your bank for longer during a losing run, but help
you make more money during the winning times.
I am not sure how well it would work with these particular tips though
as the long losing runs would reduce your stake by so much that it would
take a lot of winners to get your bank back to where it was.
Another variation would be to only increase your stake after a win,
but do not decrease (or increase) during a losing run, as long as you
stick to 5% of your bank this should work well.
More tomorrow….
Have good day's racing.
Malcolm
Miracle System (win Bet)
14.40 Beverley, Woodnook
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/betting_exchanges.htm
Place System (on exchanges only)
8 Wins in the latest run.
No Selection Today
We have tried to create a system to go along with My Mathematical
Formula:
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/My-Mathematical-Formula.htm
If you want to see how we created the system then plese look here:
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/place-system.htm
Sponser of the day (please take a look you never no!)
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afternoon spare?
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"Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
16:50 BRIGHTON Thebestisyettocome (one of todays V4 Slections)
Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 so I will
post the highest scoring selection here.
You can purchase the system formula:
http://www.makeyourhorseracingpay.co.uk
Advantages of owning the system:
1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Bet on Saturdays and Sundays (no emails from me on these days)
3) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
4) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
5) UK or IRE races
6) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
7) Now on V4
8) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
9) Owners last got an update 22/07/2005
10) Now includes Lay Place System.
11) Now includes AW System
12) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the
"Lay Betting System"
http://www.laybettingsystem.co.uk/affiliate.htm
o Todays sponser tip
Turners Lay Tips
5.15 Newmarket, Eversden
David suggest you stake 0.5% to 2% of your bank.
Only 1 loss from the last 25 selections.
http://www.turnerslaytips.co.uk/data2.asp
500 into 2682.03 since Jan 1st
Turners Lay Tips
Betting Exchanges
Please tell your friends about this daily tip and pass on my
URL
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
Best of Luck
Malcolm |
