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19th September 2007
Todays ramblings
Good Morning.
3 day's...Until my
holiday.
------------------
Darren From the
Betting
School.
I remember back in the 80's being intrigued by the Dr Z
method of finding value bets.
Dr Z was a well known writer for the
Daily Racing Form in the US but he was pretty much unknown in the UK until Nick
Mordin discussed him in one of his early books.
What Dr Z discovered
was that you could secure value bets in the place markets on the US tote.
The theory was that if you assumed that the win price just before the
off represented the true chance of a horse winning. Then through some clever
maths you could work out the true chance of the horse placing.
If the
actual place price was better than the true chance (taking into account
overround etc) then you should place a bet. Your bet would represent good value
and would ensure a profit over the long term.
Nick applied this same
theory to the UK tote.
Now that we are in the age of the betting
exchange and place only markets the method has taken on a new life.
In
this months Betting School Insiders Report we have reviewed one of the new
products that help us determine which bets give us value. And later this week I
will be sending out a discount offer for this product to everybody who has
downloaded our free sample report which is available here:
http://www.laybetting.com/go_bet-school.htm
-------------------
Yesterday we touched briefly on the different
types of trading on Betfair with the help of
Nat at TSF e-zine
descriptions.
I also mentioned that it is handy to have all types in
your repertoire so that you can take advantage of different situations that
arise.
But it is important that you learn each type so that you are
confident enough to know which type of trade can be used.
The only way
you are going to learn is by practice and I try to this on a daily
basis.
Take "Scalping" this is probably the easiest type of trading and
you can probably find several opportunities to do it daily, but you have to be
prepared to make small profits of 1, 2 or 3 ticks.
Just in case you
don't know a "Tick" is the move to the next possible price on Betfair (or other
exchanges) and works like this.
If you are betting between
1.01 -
2.00 then a tick is 0.01
2.00 to 3.00 then a tick is 0.02
3.00 to 4.00
then a tick is 0.05
4.00 to 6.00 then a tick is 0.10
6.00 to 6.00 then a
tick is 0.20
Etc
A classic example of scalping is to look at the
graphs of the first couple of runners in a race probably 30mins before the off.
If you can see a graph that has either a consistent down or up graph (click on
the runners name to see this) then you could take up your position presuming it
is going to continue on the same course.
So if the graph is going down
then back first, if it is going up then lay first.
I use this strategy a
lot but I think I succeed for 2 reasons. Firstly I make sure the graph is
really going in one of the directions and don't try to fool myself it is, and
secondly I only trade 3 ticks.
I can normally find 3 to 5 trades a day
like this.
But of course I have far more complex scenario's and if you
are interested in learning some then see
TSF e-zine.
-----------------
No selection for
Fancy
Fillies yesterday.
Don't forget if you have bought the ebook you
can also sign up for their tipping service.
http://www.laybetting.com/go_fancy_fillies_service.htm
---------------
2. Guest Selection - Brian's and Graham's
win tips.
Brian and Graham's win tips are shortish priced but very
consistent.
Yesterday
No Selections
Here are today's
(win bets)
1820 Kempton La COLUMBINA betfair 2.14
If you are
missing Shauns selections you can now get them here.
http://www.shaunsbestbets.co.uk/payment.htm
(please note that the site will be totally finished by the morning but the
tips will be available mid morning in the members area.)
3. Place
System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is a
Betting
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9. 3
Place 8 runner races only.
Points since we started + 40.90
Points new
system (30/07/07) + 11.87
Yesterday:
15.30 Thirsk, Mighty
Moon EP 2.78 (*) NR
16.30 Thirsk, Deserted Dane EP 2.26 6th
Today's:
15.20 Yarmouth, Cool Isle, EP 2.12
15.55 Yarmouth, Gyroscope, EP
2.16
19.50 Kempton, River Deuce EP 2.06
(*) No bet under new system
idea
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Yesterday:
Normal: 14:40, Yarmouth, Ridge Dance 1st
4/6
Pts 2007: +11.23
Top Choice: 16:40, Yarmouth, Canadian
Danehill 25pts 1st evs
Pts 2007: +1.42
Bank =774.70
Today:
Normal: 15:55, Yarmouth, Seeking The Buck
Top Choice: 15:20,
Yarmouth, Dot`s Delight 25pts
(we are trying an experiment with the
Top Choice selection and the points are based on where we are in the staking
plan. 25pts is the level stakes bet and we started with a 500pts bank on the
22/06/2007)
You can purchase this system here:
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/miracle-system-06-payment.htm
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Want to try something a little different? Virtual Football may be just what
you are looking for...
Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the Day" -
Lay Betting
System Bet
Yesterday:
No Selection
Today:
17.05 Yarm, Officer
Please Note: The lay betting system is
actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this
tip.
You can purchase the system formula:
http://www.makeyourhorseracingpay.co.uk
 Advantages of owning the system:
1) Pick more than one race
a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3)
Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE
races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3
systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners get free updates
9) Now
includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes
the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money
by promoting the "Lay Betting System"
http://www.laybettingsystem.co.uk/affiliate.htm
**NEW**
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
Bills321Lays
Selection 1: beverley 4.55 top
dirham* 1
Selection 2: 5.15 brief goodby* 1
Selection 3: yarmouth 3.55
le soleil* 1
Selection 4: 5.05 sony parkin** 1
Selection 5: 5.35
petitp* 1
Selections 6: kempton 8.20 mae cigan* 1
Selections 7: 8.50
dudley docker* 1
Selections 8: 9.20 synonomy* 1
Staking:
The
rule of the 321 staking plan is subjected to the price of the horses odds on
betfair or other exchanges that allow you to lay a horse.
Odds
0-to
6.0 lay 3pts
6.1 to 10/1 lay 2pts
10.1 to 20 lay 1pt
Bills321Lays
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay
System started 07/11/2006.
Sorry no more Greyhound Selections
after 6 months of testing!
If you subscribe to the
Grey Horse bot then you can still
load the session file in.
http://www.laybetting.com/session.xml
Or there are still a few copies of the system left.
http://www.laybetting.com/mals-grey-sys.htm
9. Ace Naps - (Back
Tip)
Ace Nap (back tip)
This is selection method David and I
are testing at the moment, there are not many tips but when there are they seem
to win a lot.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/ace-naps.htm
Yesterday's Selection.
No Selection
Today.
No selections
today.
Please remember as always, this is a test.
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
Have a good days
racing.
Malcolm
Malcolm@horseracingsystemsuk.com
http://www.laybetting.com
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
P.S. How about something different...
http://www.greyhoundlaysystem.co.uk/
We make every
effort to supply high quality tips, but we cannot be responsible for any losses
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provided.
This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or
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You
can use it on your website but all links must be kept in place.
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