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17th January 2007
Todays ramblings
Good Morning.
Do you get those those times when you seem to make a mess
of whatever you touch?
The first couple of days of this week have been
like that for me, I keep forgetting to turn things on or switch things off. I
think it is just a lapse of concentration while I am adjusting to my new
environment.
We had a NR (non runner) on Millionaire's Row (9) and the
other selection lost but the nap won again even though it was at a short price.
I don't mind winning when they are that short but losing never seems
worthwhile. We have a lot of faith in this tip and I really do hope it carries
on winning as it has for me and my friend so far.
I could only get
matched on 2 of John's Bulletins (10) selections yesterday so I was thinking
that I may bring my losses forward today and hopefully win on the first
selection.
Now here is where you could argue that we start a fresh. We
had a bad day and are now down 16.24, but we won Friday and Monday so we are
only actually 12.24 down, from the start.
My own feelings are we carry
on staking, the system results show we should be prepared for 3 losers in a row
and if we are going to test then we need to see if the published results bare
any resemblance to real life.
But John feels we should start again and
considering they are his selections then we should do as he advises.
If
you were considering carrying losses forward then there is something else you
should consider today as well and that is do we go for a larger stop win? You
could want to win back yesterdays losses, but you could also want to win today
so your stop loss could be set to 4.00.
These are things that you need
to ask yourself even if you are only paper trading (which I recommend) and you
need to be clear on how you will handle these situations before you go
live.
Testing I am afraid can not be rushed, we have to look at all the
angles and be sure we understand what we are getting into before taking the
plunge.
During this time we want to see how often we get matched and at
what prices, we could even just go for level stakes, at least we can record
accurately what happens and you never know you may still come out with a
profit.
It's no good jumping in to something you haven't thoroughly
researched and then getting upset because you lose more than you thought you
would. You need to have a good idea, that even on day one you could lose 3
times in a row. I would have thought that most people reading this would have a
story where they watched a tip for a couple of weeks and then the moment they
tried it, it lost.
This has happened to me loads of times, but in my
case I know it can happen and I am ready for it, and I am sure in the long run
that the selections are going to work and what is happening, should be just
short term.
Even so I have already put a maximum bank I am prepared to
lose before I stop and look at the strategy again and asses if the selections
for some reason have gone bad, or I haven't calculated for all
probabilities.
To me it is like picking stocks and shares, you do all
the homework you can then you commit to buy, it's only then you can see if the
company performs as predicted. If it doesn't then you sell if it hits your stop
loss.
Many of you would have seen the email Howard had sent me about
probabilities regarding losing streaks on my Greyhound selections (8) and
although I jested a little about the information, Howard has done something we
should all do and that is look at the worst case scenario and decide if that is
OK.
Howard decided he didn't like "my rule of 3" or using 1% of his bank
he was much happier using 0.5% and having a longer term strategy. I am not sure
how it will work out for him, but at least he has done his homework which is
what we should all do.
2. Guest Selection - started 23-10-2006
These are lay test selections from Thomas.
NO BET if odds above
9.00 at Betfair
Tuesday's (16 Jan 2007)
Sout 1300 - Keon - 3rd - SP
8/1 - Betfair 9.8 - no bet
Wolv 1340 - Aperitiv - 7th - SP 33/1 - Betfair
44.0 - no bet
Folk 1350 - Laharna - 3rd - SP 9/2 - Betfair 6.6 - WON
Folk 1520 - Present M'Lord - PU - SP 8/1 - Betfair 11.0 - no bet
Here
are today's (17 Jan 2007)
Newb 1510 - Jacksons Pier
Ling 1530 - Lady
Bahia
Thomas is recording all Betfair prices 30 sec before the
off.
3. Place System (win Bet) - Started 20-11-2006
This is
a Betting Exchange only place system, you can see the results
so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9.
Points since we started + 3.92
Yesterday.
16.00 Southwell, Black
Sea Pearl, 2.54 (3 places) 1st
Today's:
13.45 Newcastle, Rogues
Gallery, 2.30 (3 places)
4. Miracle System (win Bet)
Yesterday:
Normal:
15:20, Folkestone, Superrollercoaster 2nd 11/8
Pts 2007: - 1.01
Top
Choice: 14:30, Southwell, Para Siempre 1st 1/2
Pts 2007: -
1.22
Today:
Normal: 16:05, Lingfield, Rapid City
Top Choice:
13:00, Newbury, Pancake
You can purchase this system here:
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/miracle-system-06-payment.htm
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
How To Set Up And Run Your Own Professional
Horse Racing Tipster Service
Click Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the
Day" - Lay
Betting System Bet
Yesterday: 16:10 Wolverhampton, Island Green
10th 7/2
Today: 14.15 Newcastle, Baffling Secret
Please
Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one
of the selections for this tip.
You can purchase the system formula:
http://www.makeyourhorseracingpay.co.uk
 Advantages of owning the
system:
1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later
in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can
talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular
updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8)
Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now
includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own
your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting
System"
http://www.laybettingsystem.co.uk/affiliate.htm
**NEW**
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
Luv2Lose
Authors comments for today:
The
selection has made no impression on the chasing community and drops down to
face another three furlongs. I expect Moorlands Return to roll him over in a
large field.
Newbury, 15:40, BANNOW STRAND
Staking:
We use
1% of our bank.
Luv2Lose
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System
started 07/11/2006.
After playing around with selections I have
decided that for the time being this is going to be a lay only test. I think I
have worked out a system that will give us quite good prices but I suspect
there will have to be a maximum lay price set. I am just not sure what that
will be but I am testing between 2.00 and 7.00. I will make every effort to
record betfair lay prices as well. The ones marked with an asterisks (*) are
from the original and tighter system, I am not using these now.
You can see
all the results since the 14th (when I introduced the latest selection method)
here. I am now using what I call the "rule of 3", this means
we go for 3 wins and use a 3 race scratch back to get back any
losses.
Yesterday's.
Nottingham BAGS, 12.04, Rooster Jalfrezi, Trap
3 6th 9/4
Oxford BAGS, 12.42, Marinas Peach, Trap 4 1st 5/2 -
LOST
Nottingham BAGS, 12.47, Charlottespaving,
Trap 3(*) 6th 9/2
Oxford BAGS, 12.58, Acenikai, Trap 3 1st 7/1 -
LOST
Nottingham BAGS, 13.51, Champagne Cindy, Trap
2 3rd 3/1
Sunderland BAGS, 15.38, Murlough Toff, Trap 1(*) 3rd 4/1
Crayford BAGS, 16.08, Spring Poseidon, Trap 4 6th 7/2
Crayford BAGS, 16.27,
Tuttles Polly, Trap 5 6th 3/1
Crayford BAGS, 16.48, Sergeant Wilson, Trap
5(*) 6th 4/1
Sunderland BAGS, 16.57, Connies Maggie, Trap 5 5th 3/1
Crayford BAGS, 17.44, Bionic Breeze, Trap 5(*) 5th 2/1
Sunderland BAGS,
17.48, Hawk Lancer, Trap 1 4th 4/1
Crayford BAGS, 18.11, Perrys Tune, Trap
3(*) 5th 3/1
Sunderland BAGS, 18.18, Kilcow Vieri, Trap 3 6th 5/1
Here are today's.
Hall Green BAGS, 11.03, Minted Euro, 2
Hall Green
BAGS, 11.19, Blue Adele, Trap 2
Newcastle BAGS, 12.58, Jokers Angel, Trap
2
Hall Green BAGS, 13.04, Keljo Marishka, Trap 4(*)
Perry Barr BAGS,
14.57, Blackbush Lena, Trap 4
Hove BAGS, 15.28, Nottonighttom, Trap
3
Only 6 selections and 1 of those is a (*) so I think we just go for 1 win
today so set stop win to £2.00
Normal daily
settings.
Stake 2.00
Stop Win: 2.00 x 3 = 6.00 (take it down to 5.57)
Stop Loss: 2.00 x 25 = 50.00
running loss - 95.57
Screen Shot of settings.
I set the
Grey
Horse bot price range from 1 -7.
9. Millionaire's Row - Win Selections
started 13/11/2006
This is a win system (test) that me and a friend
have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him select every
morning so although we created the system together he is the one really
refining it.
Click Here to see the results so far.
Points +
10.15
I am using 1pt on each selection for the points total.
Yesterday. A lovely win yesterday
14.50 Folkstone Nemetan 3rd 10/11
/ Bally rainey NR
Nemetan 2.22 £3.00
Bally Rainey 5.4 £2.00
Profit = - £1.30
Daily nap (stared 15/02/2007)
Daily Back
Nap: 14.30 Southwell, Para Siempre (early price 1.35) 1st 1/2
Sp odds were
slightly better than betfairs early price.
Points + 2.75
Today: 13.00
Newbury, Pancake/Risk Runner
Pancake is trading at 1.27 so this means there
is no way we can make profit on both selections unless we put a very large
amount on Pancake. Our thoughts in this case have been to put all the stake on
the lowest price selection, but I have decided that as we do sometimes win with
the other selection then I am going to risk 50% of my normal stake on Risk
Runner only.
Risk Runner 5.44 £2.50
Daily Back Nap: 16.05
Lingfield, Rapid City (early price 1.59)
I will put a screenshot of my
test betfair account up at the end of every week.
10. John's Bullitin lay tips - Lay
Selections started 12/01/2007
These are New selections from John at
Luv2Lose. John takes the prices of the selections 30 seconds before the race
and the lay price must be between 2.1 and 3.9, at this time to qualify. The
idea here is to Stop at the first winner (or loser in this case as we are
laying).
John also has a couple of other staking ideas which I will tell you
about later.
Yesterday:
(first price morning odds,
second SP):
Southwell 13.00 PENEL - 3.55 - 4.33 - not placed
Wolverhampton 13.40 TOPIARY TED - 3.75 - 3.25 - 1st
Folkestone 14.20 COME
BYE - 3.3 - 3.5 - 1st
Wolverhampton 15.10 ROWE PARK - 3.65 - 3.75 - 2nd
Wolverhampton 15.40 DIG DEEP - 3.85 - 3.5 - 2nd
Folkestone 15.50 KITTY WONG
- 3.65 - 3.5 - 3rd
Bot
Screen shot.
Today's
Newcastle 12.40 TOPAZ LADY
Newcastle 14.15 BAFFLING SECRET
Newcastle 14.50 WINDS SUPREME
Newbury
15.40 BANNOW STRAND
Please tell your friends about this daily
tip and pass on my URL
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
Have a good days racing.
Malcolm Malcolm@horseracingsystemsuk.com
http://www.laybetting.com
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
P.S. How about something different...
http://www.greyhoundlaysystem.co.uk/
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