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13th December 2006
Todays ramblings
Good Morning.
Well you can not say I didn't warn you about the "Best
lay of the Day" yesterday. I was suprised by the win, but you can not take it
away from him, it was a good ride. I am afraid there is no selection today, we
had one possible, but the price is to high this morning.
Carrying on
from yesterday.
After studying the results of the greyhound
system selections for a little while (probably not long enough) I started to
see a pattern within the price range we had picked to use.
To be
trueful I only picked the price range we are using because at the lower price
of 6.00, we had a lot less selections where as 7.00 we seemed to get enough. Of
course we could find at 8.0, 9.0 or above we get even more selections and more
winners, but we have seen a couple of losers over the 7.00, so it remains to
been seen if the extra risk is worth it.
If we took 7.00 as our maximum
bet range lets look at how the "rule of 3" staking plan works, I will use 2.00
as our base stake because all the screen shots show this stake (+
commission).
Our first bet is:
2.11 x (7-1) = liability of 12.66
which we lose
So using the "rule of 3" our next bet goes like
this.
12.66 / 3 = 4.22 + 2.00 (our normal stake) = 6.22 x 5% (roughly
commision) = 6.53
Our liability will be 6.53 x (7-1) = 39.18 which we
lose.
So using the "rule of 3" our next bet goes like this.
Losses so
far 51.84.
51.84 / 3 = 17.28 + 2.00 (our normal stake) = 19.28 x 5% =
20.24.
Our liability will be 20.24 x (7-1) = 121.46
So if we lose we
would have lost 121.46 which we are risking just to win 2.00 remember.
I
think by now you can see how it works and the risks involved, but I must point
out a couple of things that have made it worse.
1. It is very unlikely
we would have 3 losers in a row at 7.00 and most of our losses come from a lot
cheeper lays than that.
2. I have included commision in each scenario,
this adds to the expense when using a staking plan and could be
ignored.
3. I have added our normal stake to each bet, this could be
lowered or left out while staking, but it would take longer to make your
profit.
In Howards email he points out sooner or later you will hit a
lossing streak like above that wipes out your bank.
Well we probably can
not avoid the lossing streak but I hope we can find ways of avoiding a total
wipeout. So what can we do to try to avoid this from happening?
I hope
that the Money you are using for betting is risk money, it certainly shouldn't
be coming out of your house keeping.
So lets start with a scenario where
you have a bank of 200.00 and you are going to stake 2.00.
Our main
question has got to be how much of our bank are we going to risk before we stop
and decide to call it a day?
My own feelings are that it should be
enough to cover 3 loses, which by the example above is 121.46. But I would be
very surprised if we had 3 losers in a row at 7.00. So looking at the past
selections we have lost on, I think our average is closer to 4.50 so I think we
should stop at around 60.00.
Well we can at least start with that figure
and see what happens.
Up to yesterday (when I didn't win or lose
anything.
click here) I had won 10 days in a row and about
£60.00. It is actually better than this as I have been running the bot on
Saturdays as well, but we wont include them.
So now I have covered my
£60 risk, what should should I do next?
I have a hospital
appointment with my wife this morning so we will carry on with this
tomorrow.
2. Guest Selection - started 23-10-2006
These are
lay test selections from Thomas.
NO BET if odds above 9.00 at
Betfair
Tuesday's (12 Dec 2006)
Folk 1240 - Zabeel Palace - 7th -
SP 20/1 - Betfair 42.0 - no bet
Sout 1300 - Ames Souer - 8th - SP 9/1 -
Betfair 17.5 - no bet
Folk 1340 - Aqua Pura - 1st - SP 11/4 (fav) -
Betfair 4.1 - lost
Folk 1410 - Lescer's Lad - 4th - SP 7/1 - Betfair 9.0 -
won
Here are today's (13 Dec 2006)
Newb 1355 - Viciana
Ling
1450 - Shava
Wolv 1820 - Art Historian
Thomas is recording all
Betfair prices 30 sec before the off.
3. Place System (win Bet) -
Started 20-11-2006
This is a
Betting
Exchange only place system, you can see the results so far
here. Prices are a snapshot from the morning between 8 -9.
Points since we started + 9.83
Yesterday:
13.50 Sedgefield,
Canada Street, EP 2.52 (3 places) 2nd
14.10 Folkstone, Spider Boy, EP 2.30
(3 places) NR
14.50 Sedgefield, Ela Re, EP 2.84 (3 places)
3rd.
Today's
No Selections today.
4. Miracle System (win
Bet)
Yesterday:
15:00, Southwell, Bowl Of
Cherries NR
Today:
12:50 Newbury, Hot 'N' Holy
You can
purchase this system here:
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/miracle-system-06-payment.htm
5. Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
"Last Winter, This London Man Caned The
Bookies For £14,011 Profit, At Just £20 Stakes!" And this year he's
already making it hurt even more!!
Click
Here to read more
6. "Best Lay of the
Day" - Lay
Betting System Bet
Yesterday:
14:40 Folkestone
Superrollercoaster 1st 3/1
Today: No Selection today
Please
Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one
of the selections for this tip.
You can purchase the system formula:
http://www.makeyourhorseracingpay.co.uk
 Advantages of owning the
system:
1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later
in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can
talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular
updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8)
Owners get free updates
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now
includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own
your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting
System"
http://www.laybettingsystem.co.uk/affiliate.htm
**NEW**
You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own
website.
Click here to find out more.
7. Today's sponsor tip
Nags to Riches
Normal Selection
14:50 Lingfield ,
Firework
New Selection
13:55 Newbury , Olival
We use 1% of
our bank and use the Lay Ladder to get back any losses, which doesn't always
work with these higher priced selections.
Nags to Riches
8. Greyhound Selections- Lay System
started 07/11/2006.
After playing around with selections I have
decided that for the time being this is going to be a lay only test. I think I
have worked out a system that will give us quite good prices but I suspect
there will have to be a maximum lay price set. I am just not sure what that
will be but I am testing between 2.00 and 7.00. I will make every effort to
record betfair lay prices as well. The ones marked with an asterisks (*) are
from the original and tighter system.
You can see all the results since the
14th (when I introduced the latest selection method)
here. I am now using what I call the "rule of 3", this means
we go for 3 wins and use a 3 race scratch back to get back any
losses.
Yesterday
Nottingham BAGS, 13.04, Charlottespaving, Trap 3
1st 9/2
Oxford BAGS, 13.27, Oaks Angel, Trap 3 5th 2/1
Oxford BAGS,
13.44, Staceys Marnie, Trap 2 2nd 5/1
Nottingham BAGS, 13.51, Tally Ho
View, Trap 5 5th 7/2
Crayford BAGS, 14.47, Winning Frisby, Trap 2 5th
5/1
Sunderland BAGS, 14.57, Keelogue Lass, Trap 3 1st 7/4
Sunderland
BAGS, 15.38, Tornaroy Tart, Trap 3 1st 2/1
Crayford BAGS, 17.27, Fawkham
Kid, Trap 4 3rd 3/1
Crayford BAGS, 17.58, Black Toffee, Trap 2 3rd 7/2
Sunderland BAGS, 18.18, Hollin Native, Trap 2 (*) 2nd 6/4
Well as you
can see(click Here) the "Rule of 3" worked fine again yesterday but
while messing about with the settings during testing I left ticked " Leave out
normal stake while staking" so I won back all my loses but didn't make any
further gains because we ran out of races. I am testing a new version of the
bot that now includes the orginal Greyhound bot.
Click
Here to see new options screenshot.
Here are today's.
Hall Green
BAGS, 11.19, Greenview Clover, Trap 3
Brough Park BAGS, 11.28, Morton
Chablis, Trap 2
Hall Green BAGS, 12.04, Rogflo, Trap 4
Brough Park
BAGS, 12.27, Jack Spot, Trap 2
Brough Park BAGS, 13.44, Canny Hornet, Trap
4
Hall Green BAGS, 13.51, Tullymurry Wish, Trap 4
Brough Park BAGS,
14.03, Solway Admiral, Trap 2
Hove BAGS, 14.08, Lady Trevali, Trap 1
Perry Barr BAGS, 14.37, Tomorrows Press, Trap 4
Perry Barr BAGS, 14.57,
Tanhill Tom, Trap 6
Hove BAGS, 15.28, Casino Valentine, Trap 6(*)
Hove
BAGS, 15.48, Downland Georgie, Trap 3(*)
Perry Barr BAGS, 15.58, Clash
Elsie, Trap 5
Hove BAGS, 16.08, Fizzy Nectar, Trap 4
Hove BAGS, 16.27,
Westmead Angel, Trap 6
Perry Barr BAGS, 16.37, Three Cliffs, Trap 2
Hove BAGS, 16.48, Blakes Monarch, Trap 6
Perry Barr BAGS, 16.57, Supreme
Gwen, Trap 2
Hove BAGS, 17.07, Toms Sophie, Trap 2(*)
Hove BAGS, 17.44,
Coombe Tart, Trap 2(*)
Back up to 20 today.
I set the
Grey
Horse bot price range from 1 -7.
9. Millionaire's Row - Win Selections
started 13/11/2006
This is a win system (test) that me and a friend
have been working on for some time. Just so you know I let him select every
morning so although we created the system together he is the one really
refining it.
Click Here to see the results so far.
Points +
3.56
Yesterday:
12.50 Sedgefield, Kilty Storm 1st 4/7 / Noir Et Vert
2nd 5/2
Today. 13.10 Lingfield, Bowl of Cherries/Green Pirate
Use
50/50 if you can make profit whatever the outcome. I am using 1pt on each
selection.
10. New - Win Selections started
07/11/2006
This is a new win system that John from
Luv2Lose has asked me to
show you. He expects the price to drop all the way to the off with these and
the idea is to get the best price above odds-on as you can. The verdict is
still out on whether to take selections that are below evens.
Points:
+2.95
Yesterday: Exchange Prices taken at 8.39 am
Folkestone 12.40
KINGS SIGNAL EP 2.86 2nd 13/8
Folkestone 14.40 SUPERROLLERCOASTER EP 3.6
1st 4/7
Folkestone 15.10 EVILITH FOREST EP 3.25 1st 15/8
Another 2 wins
yesterday put us right back in profit.
Today: Exchange Prices taken at
8.35 am
Newbury 12.50 HOT 'N' HOLY EP 2.66
Lingfield 14.15 ARTZOLA
EP 2.42
Please tell your friends about this daily
tip and pass on my URL
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
Have a good days racing.
Malcolm Malcolm@horseracingsystemsuk.com
http://www.laybetting.com
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
P.S. How about something different...
http://www.greyhoundlaysystem.co.uk/
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