8 rules that should help you succeed at Dutch
Download my free dutching calculator.
There are plenty of dutching
calculators available but it is always handy to know how they work, especially
if you want to work on your own ideas.
First of all you want to find the
horses % chance of winning and you do this by taking dividing 100 by the horses
100 / 4.5 = 22%
Just in case you don't know. At the top of
the odds column on betfair you will see there is a % figure. On the back side
this will normally be above 100% and on the lay it will be below 100% this is
commonly known as the "Overound".
This means that if you backed every
horse in the race to win you would lose whatever the % is over
There can be instances when this figure may drop below the 100, but
I can tell you from experience, you are unlikely to get a bet on every
selection at that instance. You also have to take into account betfairs
Anyway back to the dutch calculations.
Lets say we
were going to dutch 3 horses in a race.
Horse A = 3.5
Horse B =
Horse C = 5.00
Next, you convert the odds to their percentage
chance by dividing into 100:
Horse A = 28.57% (100 divided by 3.5
Horse B = 25% (100 divided by 4 equals 25)
Horse C = 20%
(100 divided by 5.00 equals 20)
The next step is to add the percentages
28.57 + 25 + 20 = 73.57%
So there should be (all things
being equal) that we have a 73.57% chance off one of our runners winning the
Now to find out what to bet on each runner you divide the horses'
individual percentage by the overall percentage figure - then multiply by the
total amount you want to stake on the event (£20 in this example).
Horse A 28.57 / 73.57 x 20 = 7.76
Horse B = 25 / 73.57 x 20 =
Horse C = 20 / 73.57 x 20 = 5.44
Total stake 7.76 + 6.80 + 5.44 =
And it is as easy as that.
Here are 8 rules (provided by a
reader) that you may want to consider when dutching.
1. Know how
to select your race. many races are totally unsuitable for dutching and it is
difficult to know for sure until just before the off. Don't pick races with
over 16 runners or with short price or joint favs.
2. Usually typical
races are handicaps with between 10 and 16 runners with a favourite at 5-2 or
greater. Remember, the skill is to delete the horses that can't win and
identify the value bets from the remaining horses.
3. If the
favourite is a reasonable price it can be included in the dutch but usually
only as a break even/saver bet.
4. There is a temptation to take the
easy option and use the first three or for in the betting but better returns
can be achieved by selecting horses that have good trainer and jockey form at
the meeting or at all meetings. Be flexible and willing to dutch between 2 and
5 horses but always ensure that each gives a break even or profit situation.
Don't chase your losses but look for a long term result.
betfair and using a mixture of dutching and spreading you can even improve your
chances of profits by obtaining the best prices or even backing place only.
Smaller returns but more consistant but I didn't enjoy it as some/most prices I
took were the worst not the best.
6. When dutching you must adjust
your stake accoring tothe price of the horses involved. I usually make my
selections from the racing post based on morning SP and a 10 point stake. Then
try to better those odds on betfair. e.g fav 5-2 bet 3pts return 7.5 pts +
stake profit 0.5pts. 2nd fav or fancy 4-1 stake 3 pts return 12pts + stake 15
pts profit 5pts 3rd fancy 6-1 2pts return 12pts +stake profit 4pts 4th fancy
10-1 2pts or 4th and 5th fancy depending on price 1pt or less. The profits will
be small but consistant.
7. Aim to get the most benefit from the
horse you fancy the most as this retains your interest in the system.
8. Remember that the returns are consistant but small, so leaving out the fav
in every race will give you a regular 1 in 5 guaranteed loss. So try to include
the fav provided that the priceis not to short. I usually find if the fav won
last time out especially if it has won 2 or 3 on the trot then you can safely
leave it out.
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