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28th July
2008
Todays ramblings
Good Morning.
I was hoping to start giving you
an GHB xml file for the new Back/Lay selections that I started to show you over
the weekend, but there is only one selection today and so I don't see the
point.
Thursday win on the lay took us
into profit and remember that was after having 4 losing lays on the first day,
and we have only now had 3 winning lay's.
Don't forget that from today the
selections will be appearing under the "Lay/Back test" section below.
We often talk about finding
"value" when betting and Darren (betting School) put his own slant on this in
the Pro Betting System manual.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/go_pbs.htm
So what is finding value?
A runner who's odds do not
reflect it's real chance of winning (or losing) is said to have value, but it's
of course not easy to find such runners and of course you have to work out away
of knowing if there is value in the price.
The problem with value is that
is based on your (or someone else's) opinion of the chances that runner has of
winning.
Most people agree that Betfair's
prices reflect accurately the chance a runner has of winning. Unlike bookies
prices that also have profit built in and some ridiculously low outsider
odds.
But that doesn't mean you can
not find value it just means you have to work out your own way of finding
it.
Over the next couple of weeks we
will have a look at what you should be looking at when trying to find away to
determine if a runner represents value or not and to do this we need to look at
the form of a runner and decide if everyone else has got it wrong!
To do this we need to come up
with away of rating horses so we will look at the available information about a
runner based on fact's, rather than speculation, so we will not take into
consideration the "tipsters" table because this is speculation, it maybe based
on informative information but we need to look for the runners the "tipsters"
have ovelooked. Don't forget tipsters (paper ones anyway) have to have an
opinion on nearly every race and runner where as we can pick and choose where
we look.
This should give us and
advantage.
Lay/Back System Test
("Started 23/07/2008")
There are two types of
selections here. The first is a lay tip as long as the price is under 2.00 and
the second is a back tip as long as the price is 2.00 or above.
There is one thing to think
about here. If a lay selection goes to 2.00 or above you could decide to back
it instead and the same goes for a back selection dropping below 2.00 you could
then lay this. It's probably best to back/lay these near to the "off". We are
not using a staking plan at the moment, just level stakes to see what
happens.
Lay (Only if under
2.00)
Yesterday's. (Thursday)
3:30, Bath, Lucky Leigh EP 1.36 2nd 2/5
Today's
14.45 Southwell,
Night Of Fortune EP 1.52
Back (Only if over 2.00)
Yesterday's. (Thursday)
4:40, Bath, Pennyspider,EP 3.65 4th 10/3
Today's
No Back today
Guest Selection ("An Idea I
want to try")
This is a new lay test started
22/07/2008
No bet if a significant NR (10% or over reduction factor).
Yesterday.
16.30 Sand
Australia Day EP 24 (may drop) 1st 12/1 (ouch, there were a couple of NR's but
I am not sure if they were significant.)
Today
14.45 Southwell,
Shampagne EP 7.2
Sponsors of the day
("Products and Tips for you to look at.")
Sponsor product of the day
(please take a look you never
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Sponsor Tip of the
day.
http://www.luv2lose.co.uk/
Comments for today:
Varadouro and SWINBROOK look to have the best chances at the weights and
preference to win is for the former who was second to a progressive sort over
C&D on his penultimate start and drops to claiming level for the first
time.
Nap (Lay) Selection 1:
Southwell 15:15 SWINBROOK 1Pts
http://www.luv2lose.co.uk/
Best Lay of the Day ("1 Lay
a day from my Lay betting System")
Yesterday.
(Thursday)
19.25 Donc, Novellen Lad 4th 6/4
Today: 18.40 Wind, Indy
Driver
Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1
and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.
You can purchase
the system formula:
http://www.makeyourhorseracingpay.co.uk
Please Note: I do not keep records of this tip, I just want to show
readers how good it can be but part of learning should be to watch what a
selection does daily.
You can also have this tip delivered as content
to your own website.
Click here
to find out more.
Back test system ( "A 'back'
system that I came up with a while ago")
This system is available
as part of The Pro Betting Systems e-book.
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com/go_pbs.htm
As a new idea I am going to
start a more aggressive staking plan trial and stick more closely to the
CashMaster idea.
Please Note: This is a trial.
Please do not attempt to run a staking plan unless you understand exactly what
you are getting yourself into.
New Trial Started 21/07/2008.
Start Bank £500.00
Bank Now: £353.22
We will use 5% of
our current bank as our base stake (divided by the odds we get) and we will use
the CashMaster system to get back loses except when the selections price at
betfair is under 2.00. All winnings will be calculated -5% betfair charge. If a
runner is under 2.00 and we are recovering loses then we prospone the staking
plan and stake the whole 5% stake.
Yesterday. (Loss amount so far
146.78)
16:30, Sand, Presvis EP 2.42 (Stake 70.98) 2nd 11/8
Today.
19:40, Wind, Orange
Pip EP 2.96 (Stake 87.64)
Remember this is just a test and we are
paper testing "backing" these selections.
Other Information ("
Here is some other info that should help you")
I Prefer
betfair.com
"The Deadly Sins of Gambling" (make sure you check these
out)
If you need help about anything please go to my
support site.
If you
haven't joined Betfair yet then when you do enter the code 7TUN3TCFP
this will also give you £20 when you have reached 50 betfair
points.
You can automate your betting with
GHB.
http://www.greyhorsebot.co.uk/
Please tell your friends about
this daily tip and pass on my URL
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
Have a good days
racing.
Malcolm
Malcolm@horseracingsystemsuk.com
http://www.laybetting.com
http://www.horseracingsystemsuk.com
P.S. How about something different...
http://www.greyhoundlaysystem.co.uk/
We make every
effort to supply high quality tips, but we cannot be responsible for any losses
incurred by any persons using these tips or any of the information
provided.
This tip is provided FREE and in good faith. It can stop or
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