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19th September 2006.

Yesterdays Results
Figaro Flyer (Miracle System) came 7th, Figaro Flyer (lay of the day) came umm 7th!

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

I am really sorry about yesterday when I picked the same horse for "Miracle System" and the "best lay of the day".

I don't have much flexability in the Miracle System but there were certainly a few choices on the lay side but it wasn't a good day for that system either!


Carrying on from Friday.

I think we have established that as long as we stick to the top 3 in the betting we should be seeing EP prices very similar to SP and with this information we are able to judge if our tips are likely to be profitable in the long run.

If you need to know how to work that out it is quite simple.

Take the whole number of selections shown and divide this by the number of losers.

So if you have 100 selections and 12 lost the calculation is...

100 / 12 = 8.33

So for the selections to be profitable at level stake you need to be able to get a better price than 8.33. This is only a snapshot on the day though and another winner or loser can change this figure.

Also keep in mind that fluctuations in prices from day to day can also effect the average price, so the more results and the better information you have the more likely you can make a good judgement.


John Grainger from Luv2Lose asked this question.

"Based on the fact that only around 40% of odds-on favourites win their races, does the team believe that, if a fancied horse dips below even money and keeps dipping until the off, it has more chance of winning than the favourite that has been odds-on overnight and stayed so?

There are numerous theories why the price should move that way so close to the start, some of them unsavoury, but I wonder if anyone out there has studied this?"

Let me know if you have anything to say on this subject.


We lost on the AvB test yesterday. Have you noticed the couple of times we have gone against the trend we have lost?

Maybe we should only look for races where we can agree with the betting order.

Brig (AvB) 19th Sep - 15:05 Folio v Hazzard

My Test Lay is Hazzard County @ 2.36

To get the selections I am just using pointers like RPR and Topspeed so this really does need refining but seems to be working at the moment.

Racing Post - lose and win selections
(racingpost - racing- tipsters-naps- Today's best Bet's)

15:15, Kempton, Dragon Flower @ 1.64 2nd 8/13 AV 1.62

We lost on Dragon Flower yesterday and I did point out that he was not good value at 1.64 especially in a maiden with many runners without form. Although he was beaten by a filly who hadn't shown much in it's last two starts.

My Win Selection: (7 winners 10 loser so far)
14:20, Newmarket, Circle Of Love 3.6

Again today we have a maiden race but at least we have a bit more in the price but there is a lot of competition and over half of those have no form. It would be worth keeping an eye on the place market maybe someone would give you close to evens!


"The Deadly sins of Gambling"

Other Sins.


New (test) Lay System..."Nags to Riches"
Same selection for both yesterday and we won.

Sorry this is the last few day's of showing this selection if you like these tips and wish to continue receiving them you can here.

W = 84
L = 12
% = 87

Normal (this is the normal nag's to Riches lay system rules selection).
16:15 Brighton, You Live And Learn

New (this is a new version of nag's to Riches lay system rules selection that we have been trying).

16:35 Newmarket, Sunshine Kid



Miracle System (win Bet)
14:10, Beverley, Cool Isle (Win bet)


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"Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
15:50 Beverley Torquemada (V4 Flat)

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

Advantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners last got an update 22/07/2005
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website...

o Todays sponser tip
The Almost Certain Lay Nap

3.30 Newm, Camps Bay

Set a maximum amount as your liability, then divide that figure by the available odds.

EG. 100 / (8.8 - 1) = 12.82 so your stake is 12.82.

The Almost Certain Lay Nap

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Best of Luck


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