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15th September 2006.

Yesterdays Results
Sanchi (Miracle System) came 4th, Convivial Spirit (lay of the day) came 2nd.

Todays ramblings
Good Morning.

Looks like be a wet weekend so I may have to get myself down the lake and take a little sail on my little dinghy!

I am always being asked my opinion on this system or that system and this tipping service or that tipping service but even I can not keep up with all the new one's available. So I am taking the view now that if something looks interesting then I will take a look and probably do a review.

So with that in mind I found this yesterday...

The Lay Miracle Handbook.

Now when I see anything that is offering me riches or lots of money I see straight past it. I have been in this game to long and know that the only way to make money is with a proper strategy, but I must say I like what I read on the sales page, so thought I would buy it.

Anyway without going into to much detail I actually quite enjoyed reading it. I wrote a review so have a look.

Carrying on from yesterday.

There are actually a few different tables floating around showing the difference between SP and exchange prices (or EP, thanks Graeme!), here is one from FlatStats which knowing them is pretty accurate.

Average Exchange 'Extra Value'

Favourites 12%
3rd Favourites 16%
20/1+ shots 118%
20/1+ shots who won the race 72%

The table shows how much more the Betfair SP was compared to the traditional bookies SP. The bigger the price, the bigger the extra value.

Of course again these are averages and you are likely to see swings either way.

As layers these figures are quite frightening because our job would be a lot easier if we could get outsiders at nearer sp but we have to consider liability and any horse outside the top 3 starts to look very expensive.

So when looking at SP only lay results it is important you try to at least get a feel for what the likely EP was at the time.

Of course SP in itself is not the most accurate figure to use because even this figure can change dramatically during the course of a betting day. Often the change can be significant within the last minute before the off.

So with this all stacked against us how do we get a feel for the likely prices we are going to pay on the exchanges.

Well we cover this on Monday!


We lost on Glorious Prince yesterday

Newb (AvB) 15th Sep - 15:10 SleepIn v Satch

My Test Lay is Satchem 4.0

To get the selections I am just using pointers like RPR and Topspeed so this really does need refining but seems to be working at the moment.

Racing Post - lose and win selections
(racingpost - racing- tipsters-naps- Today's best Bet's)

Yesterday: 15:45, Ayr, Sanchi 5th 4/5, AV 1.73

We lost yesterday. If we take Mike's advice and only bet selections evens or over then it was a no bet.

My Win Selection: (6 winners 9 loser so far)
15:10, Newbury, Sleeping Indian 2.6 on betfair at the moment.

The main worry I can see with Sleeping Indian is that he has no recent form.


Guest selection - Luv2Lose


This is a one a day lay short priced lay system we are trying.

Here is today’s Luv2Lose (lay) selection:

Ermine Sea was a NR yesterday.

Only four horses have raced prior to this one and I am taking Ideally to beat the field. Atraas may be good on paper but it just does not count in a race. (Authors comments)

Newbury, 14:35, Atraas


"The Deadly sins of Gambling"

Other Sins.


New (test) Lay System..."Nags to Riches"
Our main selection was a NR yesterday but we won on the new one.

Sorry this is the last few day's of showing this selection if you like these tips and wish to continue receiving them you can here.

W = 79
L = 12
% = 87

Normal (this is the normal nag's to Riches lay system rules selection).
14:45 Ayr, Sea salt

New (this is a new version of nag's to Riches lay system rules selection that we have been trying).

17:35 Ayr,Incursion



Miracle System (win Bet)
15:10, Newbury, Sleeping Indian (Win bet)


Sponsor of the day (please take a look you never Know!)
Here is a lay system you can use 24hrs a day 7 days a week. Lay on betfair at times that suit you, clcik below to read the full story.
Click Here to read more

"Best Lay of the Day" - Lay Betting System Bet
16:30 Ayr Burning Incense (V4 Flat)

Please Note: The lay betting system is actually 4 systems in 1 and I will choose one of the selections for this tip.

You can purchase the system formula:

Advantages of owning the system:

1) Pick more than one race a day
2) Make a selection later in the day (normally more choices)
3) Password protected forum so you can talk to other owners.
4) UK or IRE races
5) Bonus Systems and regular updates.
6) Now on V4
7) 3 systems, 1 for flat 2 for Jump/Chase
8) Owners last got an update 22/07/2005
9) Now includes Lay Place System.
10) Now includes AW System
11) Now includes the Investment System
If you own your own website you can makes some money by promoting the "Lay Betting System"


You can also have this tip delivered as content to your own website...

o Todays sponser tip

As at 8 o'clock this morning the following horses were identified as within Bismarx range.
Watch for market changes before the race.
Exercise caution at odds over 2.8 or where non-runner's have left less than 5 runner's in a race.
Generally do not lay when wide odds disparity (3.0+) has emerged between the Favourite and the other runner's.
Quit when your profit target has been reached.
Prepare for liability in advance - always plan your next move first.

14.00 Newb PUTRA SQUARE @2.8
14.10 Ayr ARENAS DREAM @2.8
14.55 Nott TOBERMORY @2.8
15.10 Newb SLEEPING INDIAN @2.7
15.55 Ayr ALZERRA @2.7
16.10 Kilb DERRYKEEL @2.5

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Best of Luck


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